2018 VP1 Information Sheet-- "1 in 240"  Odds of a Fireball on 2020-11-02 or ."99.59% chance the asteroid will MISS the Earth"

This artist's concept shows a broken-up asteroid.Image: Courtesy NASA/JPL-Caltech

   This artist's concept shows a broken-up asteroid  Image:----- Courtesy NASA/JPL-Caltech

Throughout  the year, tiny rocks strike the Earth's atmosphere and creating  spectacular fireballs. Most of these rocks travel through space unknown  to habitats of Earth until they strike the atmosphere. If we are lucky,  the fireball will be seen and reported. If we are fortunate, the  fireballs will be capture on film. The vastest majority of fireballs are  of no danger what so ever. Most fireballs are like rainbows in that  they are cool. Four times in the past, these rocks travel through the  field of vision of an asteroid observer before impact. The observation  was taken. The rocks were given designations, like 2014 AA( i.e., the first discovery of the first half of January in 2014), and the rocks "became" asteroids. These four asteroids were on the safe side when it comes to size.

 In  the first half of November 2018, an asteroid was discovered and give  the designation 2018 VP1. This asteroid is tiny [1.8 m - 3.9 m ( 5.90551  to 12.79528 feet) ]. This asteroid was only observed 21 times over 13  days.

In  orbit determination, one calculation of what orbit will place the  object in the sky where it was seen. If one knows an object's orbit, it  knows where it is going and where it will be in the sky. All  observations are "imperfect," so there will be many similar orbits. If  one were to create virtual asteroids for each of the similar orbits and  did a simulation, one would see over time. The virtual asteroids move  apart from each other to create an uncertainty region. The real asteroid  is somewhere within the uncertainty region. When doing the simulation,  if any of the virtual asteroids impact the Earth, they become virtual  impactors. There is 'Non-Zero' probability of the real asteroid hitting  the Earth. By calculating the percentage of virtual impactors to virtual  asteroids, one can calculate the risk of impact.

There  is a very low-risk impact 2018 VP1 will on 2020-11-02. However, it must  be restarted this asteroid is tiny [1.8 m - 3.9 m ( 5.90551 to 12.79528  feet) ].

We have a fireball this size about two times a year.  Also see Sentry: Earth Impact Monitoring

Find_orb computing  Monte Carlo variant orbits  for the NEO 2018 VP1. One can use Monte Carlo method to  create virtual asteroids. By using orbits of  the virtual asteroids one can can see where the

Find_orb computing  Monte Carlo variant orbits  for the NEO 2018 VP1. One can use Monte Carlo method to  create virtual asteroids. By using orbits of  the virtual asteroids one can can see where the "real" asteroid could go. If any of virtual asteroids impact the Earth they become  known as  virtual impactors and the is 'Non-Zero' probability of  the real  asteroid hitting the Earth
An program is Solex & Exorb

@kpheider asked me to calculate a path of risk for #2018VP1. It's only a few meters across but JPL's SENTRY has it at 1 chance in 240 of impacting on Nov 2, 2020 (ESA/NEODys has it at 1 in 400). Path of risk stretches across the Pacific. Calculated with SOLEX 12.1 pic.twitter.com/U8SGb8CvOl

— Peter Thomas (@ptastro1) July 26, 2019


(as of 2020-06-13 )

Note: this was edited  to add links missing data formatting,  typos, replace, the image of Find_orb computing, fixing bad links .

This was first posted By Steven M. Tilley  http://lagniappeobserving.blogspot.com/2020/06/2018VP1nformationSheet.html Used  with permission

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